Perception is a funny thing. It can be a little fickle, too. Is it relevant to the 2012 presidential race?
Recent fighting by our government leaders on a monumental issue has proven that there were no winners in Washington. It left a bad taste in the mouths of all of us, and we’re not satisfied with our leaders right now.
Is that enough to trip Obama as he positions himself for a re-election bid in 2012? According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll last week, 31 percent of Americans blamed Republicans for the consternation over the debt ceiling and 21 percent blamed Obama. However, Obama needs to be concerned about gathering support across the country while Republican representatives will have an easier time garnering favor in their home districts.
Obama still has time
Time will tell if the president can regain the momentum that swept him into office. He does have time on his side so he may be able to put the debacle behind him, depending on what happens in the coming months. His future also will be dependent on the person he faces from the Republican side.
Obama’s weekly job-approval rating, as measured by Gallup, predictably headed south during the darkest days of the debt-ceiling crisis. The president hit a new low of 42 percent for the week of July 25-31.
A Gallup three-day average even showed him hitting 40 percent during that week.
By Tuesday, the number rose to 42 percent after the crisis was over.
Presidents have seen approval ratings this low before. In fact, it’s common. According to Gallup, only two presidents since World War II have not fallen below 40 percent — Dwight Eisenhower and John F. Kennedy. That includes two very popular presidents — Reagan and Clinton — who fell below 40 percent during their presidencies.
Situation affects perception
So, public perception rises and falls for almost everyone in politics. Why is that so?
The sphere of public perception can be divided into various audiences. We are investors, voters, consumers, working mothers, wealthy business owners, stay-at-home dads, caregivers and home-owners, to name just a few. Your perception of the debt-ceiling crisis and, more importantly, the resulting behavior of our government leaders probably was based on your individual situation and your priorities.
For example, were you looking at the gridlock in Washington as an investor? As a voter? As a Democrat, Republican or independent? As someone who is unemployed or as someone who is very satisfied in a stable job? Your background shapes your opinions.
Your internal factors, such as your mental state, your background and your education shape those opinions, too. A person more educated on the debt ceiling and the calamity that may have resulted if it was not raised may think differently than someone not monitoring the situation closely.
Of course, there are external factors that weigh on your perception. For example, the economy is one of the biggest issues now on people’s minds.
Ultimately, the presidential race likely will come down to jobs and the economy once again. If there is recovery, Obama likely will get the credit. If there is little change in the economy or even a deeper slide, voters will change Washington “» again.
Josh Sommers is president and CEO of Focus Media, a leading Hudson Valley advertising and public relations agency. He can be reached at josh@advertisingandpr.com or 294-3342, ext. 303. Read his blog at www.advertisingandpr.com. His column appears Fridays.
